![]() When you spread out the Patriots by utilizing extra receivers, you can have success running the ball.īut when you add extra tight ends, the Patriots are far more likely to play with heavier boxes.Īgainst 11 personnel this year, the Patriots have used seven or more box defenders on just 58% of running back runs. On the season, look at the splits for the Patriots against runs from running backs on early downs: The Browns' rushing game plan was perplexing. ![]() Early-down passes: -0.65 EPA/att (by far the worst in the NFL last week).On early downs, look at the Browns' splits: The Patriots executed the perfect plan when dealing with a great run offense and a questionable quarterback: Jump out early and force the other team to pass. That was the lowest rate in the NFL last week, and the fifth-lowest for any team in any game all season. The Steelers converted just 13% of their early downs into first downs. That was the highest rate in the NFL last week, and the third-highest for any team in any game all season. The Ravens converted 40% of their early downs into first downs. Tom Brady has been under fire, but hear why Colin Cowherd makes his case for TB12. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were upset by the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-18. Runs and non-WR targets do not target the Steelers injuries and were not working.Īnd yet, 68% of the called early-down offense was a run play or a target to a running back or tight end, which would not take advantage of the Steelers' injuries? Your wide receivers are carving them up to the tune of 11 YPA and +0.70 EPA/target. Seven non-WR targets: -0.31 EPA/att, 3.9 YPA, 29% success.In total, look at what the Bucs did on 42 early-down plays in the first three quarters of games: Any other targets: -0.31 EPA/att, 3.9 YPA, 29% success (7 dropbacks).Targeting WRs: +0.70 EPA/att, 11.0 YPA, 75% success (12 dropbacks).Sure enough, look at the target efficiency on early downs by position in the first three quarters: It makes perfect sense that a team should target their wide receivers when the entire opposing secondary is injured. Any other targets: -0.05 EPA/att, 4.3 YPA, 67% success.Targeting WRs: +0.31 EPA/att, 8.5 yards per attempt, 75% success rate.If that wasn't bad enough, when the Bucs did pass the ball on first down, look at their target splits and efficiency: It made no sense to call runs at such a high rate when facing a depleted secondary. The Steelers were playing without their top three cornerbacks and their No. This is why, on second downs, they averaged 8.2 yards to go, sixth-longest in the NFL. These runs gained 3.6 yards per carry, -0.05 expected points added/attempt and a 43% success rate. On first down in the first three quarters, the Bucs dropped back to pass the ball on just 39% of their offensive plays. What were the Buccaneers doing on offense?
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